There are lies, damn lies - and statistics. - Mark Twain

Some recent hiring news I came across shows some interesting and relevant data. The newsletter I read trumpeted it with a title of Employment Outlook Steady for First Quarter of 2007. It added that:

The most recent Manpower Employment Outlook Survey found that the New Year will begin with a steady hiring pace. The survey conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc., Milwaukee, reports that 23 percent of employers expect to add to their payrolls during the first quarter of 2007, while 11 percent expect to reduce staff levels. Sixty percent expect no change in the hiring pace, and 6 percent are undecided about their hiring plans.

There is a 23% increase versus 11% decrease and almost 2/3 of the companies with no change or still undecided. But downloading the actual report, I came across this:

For more than two years, U.S. employers have consistently reported steady hiring plans. Although the first quarter job forecast is similar to last quarter and last year at this time, a subtle downward shift has emerged. While it is too early to note if this is a trend, this marks two consecutive quarters of more cautious hiring plans.

This is not such good news. Last year was a year of up-and-down job growth, and a downward shift is not good news. Perhaps the answer lies in looking at more regional data. As HiProFile is headquartered in Boston, it seems logical to examine the Northeast data:

In the Northeast, 23% of employers intend to increase the hiring pace, while 10% expect to decrease staff levels, which results in a Net Employment Outlook of +13%. Seasonally adjusted data suggests that the hiring pace in the new year is expected to be healthy, as it was in the fourth quarter, and slightly improved from a year ago.

Interesting, but what is really telling us? The data is not giving enough data. Are these companies are burger-flipping jobs at McDonalds or VP positions at Fidelity? This warrants further investigation. Checking data from the Mass Department of Workforce Development, I came across their latest numbers:

Professional, scientific, and business services added 1,500 jobs in November, with strong gains recorded in computer systems design services and management, scientific, and technical consulting services

Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 1,200 jobs in November, reversing much of the 1,600 job gain from the previous month. Seasonal hiring in such industries as clothing and accessories stores, general merchandise stores, and sporting goods, hobby, and book stores was less robust than usual

Education and health services employment increased by 1,300 in November with gains concentrated in the health care component

Employment in the information super sector at 87,900 was essentially unchanged (+100) and has remained flat through most of 2006.

Financial activities jobs increased by 500 in November with most of the increase occurring in insurance.

Leisure and hospitality lost 700 jobs in November, following a 3,100 loss in October, the result of seasonal related declines

Construction employment was unchanged in November at 141,300. Employment trends since the beginning of the year show 800 fewer jobs from one year ago.

Manufacturing employment was off 800 in November, with fabricated metals and semiconductors each down 200. At 304,400, manufacturing employment is up from one year ago, despite jobs being off by 3,000 since July of this year.

To summarize, there are gains in Insurance, Health Care, computer systems design services and consulting, but with other industries losing jobs, it appears not to be steady growth but rather the continuing ebb and flow of gain and loss. With the recent news that EMC was planning to cut 1,250 jobs this year as well as Boston Scientific axing 600 jobs the news looks worse. However, companies like Eduventures Inc in Boston is looking to add 70 employees this year, Tyco Healthcare in Mansfield is planning massive hirings once they spin-off from the troubled parent company, and medical software firm Meditech looks to add almost 200 new faces over the course of the next year.

Hiring surveys and statistics make great copy for 20 second news snippets and headlines in the Business pages. Statistics can be massaged to suit the view of whoever is looking at them, but they are far from an absolute statement of where hiring in the Northeast is going to be and at what rate. Reviewing all the data and actually being involved in the process and working hands-on with hiring companies is what allows a clearer view of what is going on in the job market.

Since its inception in 2002, HiProFile has established selected relationships with organizations throughout New England needing to fill positions at the $80–300K base salary level. Unlike outplacement firms or “headhunters,” HiProFile establishes cost-effective on-going relationships and carefully recruits Member Companies to preserve its “boutique” status. In other words, the firm maintains a “by invitation only” policy regarding client companies based on strict non-compete and non-solicitation agreements.Additional questions or information requests should be directed to Hal Bent, Senior Director of Communications (hbent@hpfjobs.com).

HiProFile LLC ● 125 Summer Street ● Boston, MA 02110 ● 617-345-0007 ● http://www.hiprofilellc.com/